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Sustainability of private capital flows to developing countries : Is a generalized reversal likely?

Author

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  • Hernandez, Leonardo
  • Rudolph, Heinz

Abstract

Since 1989, private capital flows to a select group of developing countries have increased sharply, but developments in 1994 have caused concern about the sustainability of those flows. Several highly indebted developing countries that are implementing reform are concerned that a generalized reversal - similar to episodes of capital flight in the early 1980s - might disrupt their economies and threaten economic reform. Because the surge in private capital flows coincided with a period of low international interest rates and intensive policy reform in developing countries, debate has been active about whether the surge is driven mainly by domestic (pull) or external (push) factors. Under the pull hypothesis, successful domestic policies are the key to ensuring sustainable capital inflows; under the push hypothesis, an increase in international interest rates would cause a reversal of those flows (back to the industrial world). Using a partial adjustment model in which both domestic and external variables are defined, the authors explain why private capital flows to some developing countries but not to others (using panel data for 1986-93 for 22 countries). They argue that a generalized reversal is unlikely in countries that maintain a fundamentally sound macroeconomic environment. In fact, their empirical results show that domestic factors such as domestic savings and investment ratios significantly affected the recent surge in capital inflows. Further, they suggest that countries that have not received significant foreign capital - including countries in sub-Saharan Africa - could begin to if they implemented structural reforms that allow them to export, save, and invest at higher rates. Reducing their foreign debt (which might call for a continuation of recent debt reduction operations) could also help attract foreign private investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernandez, Leonardo & Rudolph, Heinz, 1995. "Sustainability of private capital flows to developing countries : Is a generalized reversal likely?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1518, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1518
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1993. "Costs and benefits of debt and debt service reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1169, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Renu Kohli, 2001. "Capital Flows and Their Macroeconomic Effects in India," IMF Working Papers 01/192, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Goopu, Sudarshan, 1996. "The analysis of emerging policy issues in development finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1589, The World Bank.
    3. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2006. "Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1927-1952, July.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    5. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1996. "Emerging policy issues in development finance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 85-100.
    6. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    7. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
    8. Kausik Chaudhuri & D. K. Srivastava, 1999. "Dearth of private capital flows in Sub-Saharan Africa," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 365-368.
    9. Figuet, Jean-Marc & Humblot, Thomas & Lahet, Delphine, 2015. "Cross-border banking claims on emerging countries: The Basel III Banking Reforms in a push and pull framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-310.
    10. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    11. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
    12. Lensink, Robert & White, Howard, 1998. "Does the Revival of International Private Capital Flows Mean the End of Aid?: An Analysis of Developing Countries' Access to Private Capital," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1221-1234, July.
    13. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2007. "Aliran Modal Masuk (Capital Inflows) Dan Implikasinya Bagi Perekonomian Indonesia
      [The Implications of the Capital Inflows on Indonesian Economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 65905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:159-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    16. Buch, Claudia M., 2000. "What Determines Maturity? An Analysis for Foreign Assets of German Commercial Banks," Kiel Working Papers 974, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    17. Buch, Claudia M. & Lusinyan, Lusine, 2003. "Determinants of short-term debt: a note," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 157-170, April.
    18. Leonardo Hernández & Heinz Rudolph, 1997. "Sustainability of Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is a Generalized Reversal Likely?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 34(102), pages 237-266.

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