IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bkr/wpaper/wps35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should Central Banks Prick Asset Price Bubbles? An Analysis Based on a Financial Accelerator Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market

Author

Listed:
  • Alexey Vasilenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation;National Research University Higher School of Economics, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis; University of Toronto, Joseph L Rotman School of Management.)

Abstract

This paper studies whether and how the central bank should prick asset price bubbles, if the effect of interest rate policy on bubbles can significantly vary across periods. For this purpose, I first construct a financial accelerator model with an agent-based financial market that can endogenously generate bubbles and account for their impact on the real sector of the economy. Then, I calculate the effect of different nonlinear interest rate rules for pricking asset price bubbles on social welfare and financial stability. The results demonstrate that pricking asset price bubbles can enhance social welfare and reduce the volatility of output and inflation, especially if asset price bubbles are caused by credit expansion. Pricking bubbles is also desirable when the central bank can additionally implement an effective communication policy to prick bubbles, for example, effective verbal interventions aimed at the expectations of agents in the financial market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey Vasilenko, 2018. "Should Central Banks Prick Asset Price Bubbles? An Analysis Based on a Financial Accelerator Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps35, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/87588/wp35_e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Signoretti, Federico M., 2014. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-174.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives," Working Papers 1411, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 31 Oct 2014.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    5. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    7. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
    8. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
    9. Harras, Georges & Sornette, Didier, 2011. "How to grow a bubble: A model of myopic adapting agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 137-152.
    10. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    11. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    12. Mikael Bask, 2012. "Asset Price Misalignments And Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, July.
    13. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy And Asset Price Misalignments," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(5), pages 636-654, November.
    14. Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: a synthesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, April.
    15. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    16. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    17. Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale & Franklin Allen, 2017. "On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles," 2017 Meeting Papers 489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    19. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Stock market booms and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Mar), pages 91-122.
    20. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-37, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    21. Benjamin Beckers & Kerstin Bernoth, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1605, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    25. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    26. Armand Fouejieu A. & Alexandra Popescu, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: In Search of Trade-offs," Working Papers 2014.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    27. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    29. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexey Vasilenko, 2017. "Should Monetary Authorities Prick Asset Price Bubbles? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 182/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    3. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    4. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
    5. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    6. Luik Marc-Andre & Wesselbaum Dennis, 2021. "Did the FED React to Asset Price Bubbles?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 745-772, June.
    7. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.
    8. Kajuth, Florian, 2010. "The role of liquidity constraints in the response of monetary policy to house prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 230-242, December.
    9. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    12. Zacek, Jan, 2020. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? Simulations based on a DSGE model with an occasionally binding credit constraint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 293-311.
    13. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    14. Soltani , Sedigheh & Falihi , Nemat & Mehrabiyan , Azadeh & Amiri , Hossein, 2021. "Investigating the Effects of Monetary and Financial Shocks on the Key Macroeconomic Variables, Focusing on the Intermediary Role of Banks Using DSGE Models," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(4), pages 477-500, December.
    15. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 68-98, August.
    16. Fabio Verona & Manuel M. F. Martins & Inês Drumond, 2014. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," CEF.UP Working Papers 1402, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    18. Hoshino, Satoshi & Ida, Daisuke, 2021. "Stock prices and monetary policy in Japan: An analysis of a Bayesian DSGE model," MPRA Paper 107301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Qiuyi Yang & Youze Lang & Changsheng Xu, 2018. "Is the High Interest Rate Combined with Intense Deleveraging Campaign Desirable? A Collateral Mechanism under Stringent Credit Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2016. "Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 721-746, September.
    21. Vlieghe, Gertjan W, 2007. "Imperfect credit markets: implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 12957, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; asset price bubble; New Keynesian macroeconomics; agent-based financial market.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: BoR Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.