IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/10528.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives

Author

Listed:
  • Brunnermeier, Markus K
  • Schnabel, Isabel

Abstract

This paper reviews some of the most prominent asset price bubbles from the past 400 years and documents how central banks (or other institutions) reacted to those bubbles. The historical evidence suggests that the emergence of bubbles is often preceded or accompanied by an expansionary monetary policy, lending booms, capital inflows, and financial innovation or deregulation. We find that the severity of the economic crisis following the bursting of a bubble is less linked to the type of asset than to the financing of the bubble—crises are most severe when accompanied by a lending boom and high leverage of market players, and when financial institutions themselves are participating in the buying frenzy. Past experience also suggests that a purely passive “cleaning up the mess” stance toward the buildup of bubbles is, in many cases, costly. Monetary policy and macroprudential measures that lean against inflating bubbles can and sometimes have helped deflate bubbles and mitigate the associated economic crises. However, the correct implementation of such proactive policy approaches remains fraught with difficulties.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunnermeier, Markus K & Schnabel, Isabel, 2015. "Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives," CEPR Discussion Papers 10528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10528
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isabel Schnabel & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 929-968, December.
    2. Adam Posen, 2003. "It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    4. Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent & Michael Robson, 2010. "Asset Prices, Credit Growth, Monetary and Other Policies: An Australian Case Study," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    6. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sheridan, Richard B., 1960. "The British Credit Crisis of 1772 and The American Colonies," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 161-186, June.
    8. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2014. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.), Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 3, pages 61-116 Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    11. Eugene N. White, 2007. "The Crash of 1882 and the Bailout of the Paris Bourse," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 1(2), pages 115-144, July.
    12. Henry Hamilton, 1956. "The Failure Of The Ayr Bank, 1772," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 8(3), pages 405-417, April.
    13. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    14. Schwartz, Anna J., 1989. "Money in Historical Perspective," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226742281.
    15. Kent, Christopher John, 2011. "Two depressions, one banking collapse: Lessons from Australia," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 126-137, August.
    16. Timothy J Riddiough, 2012. "The first sub-prime mortgage crisis and its aftermath," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 7-18 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Getting Up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 128-150, March.
    18. C. N. Ward-Perkins, 1950. "The Commercial Crisis Of 1847," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 75-94.
    19. Karsten R. Gerdrup, 2003. "Three episodes of financial fragility in Norway since the 1890s," BIS Working Papers 142, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Eugene N. White, 2007. "The Crash of 1882, Counterparty Risk, and the Bailout of the Paris Bourse," NBER Working Papers 12933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    22. Colin McKenzie, 2006. "Australia's Deflation in the 1890s," Discussion papers 06017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Alston Lee J. & Grove Wayne A. & Wheelock David C., 1994. "Why Do Banks Fail? Evidence from the 1920s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 409-431, October.
    24. Calomiris, Charles W. & Schweikart, Larry, 1991. "The Panic of 1857: Origins, Transmission, and Containment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(04), pages 807-834, December.
    25. Francisco Carballo-Cruz, 2011. "Causes and Consequences of the Spanish Economic Crisis: Why the Recovery is Taken so Long?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(3), pages 309-328, September.
    26. Lauridsen, Laurids S., 1998. "The financial crisis in Thailand: Causes, conduct and consequences?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1575-1591, August.
    27. Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
    28. C. Goodhart, 2001. "What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurementof Inflation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 65, Netherlands Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2017:i:5:p:51-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6388, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Croitoru Lucian, 2015. "The Tendency Towards Secondarity in Managing Global Imbalances," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 62(3), pages 291-311, November.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Salih Fendoglu, 2016. "Credit cycles and macroprudential policy framework in emerging countries," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 17-25 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Turalay Kenç, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation: history, theory and policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 1-15 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao & Feng Dong, 2017. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 205, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:gam:jijfss:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:31-:d:121071 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Schlegel, Jonas & Watzka, Sebastian, 2016. "The Effect of the Household Balance Sheet on Unemployment – Evidence from Spanish Provinces," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:187-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Philip Inyeob Ji & Glenn Otto, 2015. "Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets: Rational Bubbles or Not?," Discussion Papers 2015-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    14. Buch M. Claudia & Ursula Vogel, 2015. "Die grenzüberschreitenden Implikationen makroprudenzieller Politik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(17), pages 22-28, September.
    15. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Central Banks and Financial Stability: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 79033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Alexey Vasilenko, 2017. "Should Monetary Authorities Prick Asset Price Bubbles? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with an Agent-Based Financial Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 182/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. J. Sebastian Amador-Torres & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "I know what you did during the last bubble: Determinants of housing bubbles' duration in OECD countries," Borradores de Economia 1005, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. repec:eee:jbfina:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:110-128 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubbles; capital flows; credit; macroprudential policy; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.