IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Peter Claeys
  • Borek Vasicek

Abstract

Although there is by now strong evidence that sovereign risk premia are driven by a common factor, little is known about the detailed linkages between sovereign bond markets. We employ the VAR method by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) to analyse the strength and direction of bilateral linkages between EU sovereign bond markets using daily data on sovereign bond yield spreads and a common factor. The forecast-error variance decomposition of this FAVAR indicates a lot of heterogeneity in the bilateral spillover sent and received between bond markets. Spillover is more important than domestic factors for all eurozone countries. The CE countries mostly affect each other. Only Denmark, Sweden and the UK are rather insulated from spillover. The spillover has increased substantially since 2007, despite starting from a high level. We use this framework to measure the impact of sovereign rating news and analyse the dynamic linkages between spreads and the ratings of the main credit rating agencies. We find a two-sided relation between rating news and sovereign risk premia. The spillover of rating news is very heterogeneous, and it is substantially stronger for downgrades at lower grades. The impact is often weaker domestically than on bond spreads of other sovereigns.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2012_07.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2012/07.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/07
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1

Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Contagion; eurozone; FAVAR; financial crisis; fiscal policy; sovereign bond spreads; sovereign ratings; spillover.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
  • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Massimiliano Caporin & Loriana Pelizzon & Francesco Ravazzolo & Roberto Rigobon, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe," Working Papers 0009, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  2. Bertrand Candelon & Amadou N Sy & Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers; Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/68, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  4. FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, 01.
  5. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
  6. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
  7. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  8. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
  9. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
  10. Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro Area. Which prospects for a Eurobond?," Working Papers 424, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
  12. Jan Babecky & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2013. "Financial Integration at Times of Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 25-45, March.
  13. Kilponen, Juha & Laakkonen, Helinä & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2012. "Sovereign risk, European crisis resolution policies and bond yields," Research Discussion Papers 22/2012, Bank of Finland.
  14. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
  15. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  16. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  19. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Who's afraid of sovereign bonds?," Policy Contributions 695, Bruegel.
  20. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
  21. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish; How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 09/108, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Ebner, André, 2009. "An empirical analysis on the determinants of CEE government bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 97-121, June.
  24. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
  25. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
  26. Viral V. Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 17136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  28. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  29. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors; What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/158, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
  31. Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign spreads in the eurozone: which prospects for a Eurobond?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 231-273, 04.
  32. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
  33. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.