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Sovereign spreads in the Euro Area. Which prospects for a Eurobond?

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  • Carlo Favero
  • Alessandro Missale

Abstract

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the determinants of sovereign yield spreads and contagion effects in the euro area in order to evaluate the rationale for a common Eurobond jointly guaranteed by euro-area Member States. We find that default risk is the main driver of yield spreads, suggesting small gains from greater liquidity. Fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of default risk but only as they interact with other countries’ yield spreads; i.e. with the global risk that the market perceives. More important, the impact of this global risk variable is not constant over time, a clear sign of contagion driven by shifts in market sentiment. This evidence points to a discontinuity in the disciplinary role of financial markets. If markets can stay irrational longer than a country can stay solvent, then the role of yield spreads on national bonds as a fiscal discipline device is considerably weakened, and issuing Eurobonds can be economically justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro Area. Which prospects for a Eurobond?," Working Papers 424, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:424
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    1. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    2. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
    4. repec:kap:iaecre:v:20:y:2014:i:3:p:259-267 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carlo A. Favero, 2012. "Modelling and Forecasting Yield Differentials in the euro area. A non-linear Global VAR model," Working Papers 431, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2012. "Volatility in EMU sovereign bond yields: permanent and transitory components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(17), pages 1453-1464, September.
    7. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
    8. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Shahin Vallée, 2012. "Paths to Eurobonds," IMF Working Papers 2012/172, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Giovanni Piersanti, 2014. "Theory and Practice of Contagion in Monetary Unions: Domino Effects in EMU Mediterranean Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(3), pages 259-267, August.
    10. John Muellbauer, 2013. "Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 610-645, AUTUMN.
    11. Philip Lane, 2013. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 555-580, July.
    12. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "Zum Versagen der Marktdisziplinierung in der Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 58-80, May.
    13. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News," Working Papers 2012/07, Czech National Bank.
    14. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    15. Alexandra M.D. Hild & Bernhard Herz & Christian Bauer, 2014. "Structured Eurobonds: Limiting Liability and Distributing Profits," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 250-267, March.
    16. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2014. "Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates," MF Working Papers 18, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 30 Jan 2014.
    18. Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2013. "Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain," wp.comunite 0098, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    19. Roberto Tamborini, 2012. "Market opinions, fundamentals and the euro-sovereign debt crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1210, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    20. Moisă Altăr & Alexandru-Adrian Cramer & Adam-Nelu Altăr-Samuel, 2015. "Sovereign Financial Asset Market Linkages across Europe During the Euro Zone Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 29-49, December.

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