IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An empirical study on the decoupling movements between corporate bond and CDS spreads


  • Andersson, Magnus
  • Alexopoulou, Ioana
  • Georgescu, Oana-Maria


Applied to the European markets, this paper analyzes the price of credit risk on the Credit Default Swap (CDS) and corporate bond markets by comparing the sensitivity of the credit spreads on each market to systematic, idiosyncratic risk factors and liquidity. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between the two markets, and the tendency for CDS markets to lead corporate bond markets in terms of price discovery. We find that the outbreak of the financial turmoil in the summer of 2007 induced a substantial increase in risk aversion and a shift in the pricing of credit risk, with CDS markets becoming more sensitive to systematic risk while cash bond markets priced in more information about liquidity and idiosyncratic risk. Moreover, the financial turbulence also brought about a systematic disconnection between the two markets caused by the significant change in the lead-lag relationship, with CDS markets always leading the cash bond markets. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Magnus & Alexopoulou, Ioana & Georgescu, Oana-Maria, 2009. "An empirical study on the decoupling movements between corporate bond and CDS spreads," Working Paper Series 1085, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091085

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters,in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
    4. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    6. Robert J. MacCulloch & Rafael Di Tella & Andrew J. Oswald, 2001. "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 335-341, March.
    7. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2001. "Money demand in the euro area: do national differences matter?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 395-402, October.
    9. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    12. Jan Kakes & Jan Willem Van Den End, 2004. "Do stock prices affect house prices? Evidence for the Netherlands," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 741-744.
    13. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    14. Livio Stracca, 2004. "Does Liquidity Matter? Properties of a Divisia Monetary Aggregate in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 309-331, July.
    15. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    16. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October.
    17. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
    18. Alessandro Calza & Alexander Jung & Livio Stracca, 2000. "An econometric analysis of the main components of M3 in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(4), pages 680-701, December.
    19. Bruggeman, Annick, 2000. "The Stability of EMU-Wide Money Demand Functions and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 184-202, March.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    21. Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area; Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 02/185, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    23. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
    25. Greene, Clinton A., 1999. "Testing for a break at an unknown change-point: a test with known size in small samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 13-16, July.
    26. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    27. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    28. von Landesberger, Julian, 2007. "Sectoral money demand models for the euro area based on a common set of determinants," Working Paper Series 741, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Gi H. & Li, Haitao & Zhang, Weina, 2016. "CDS-bond basis and bond return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 307-337.
    2. repec:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:8:p:836-861 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Corò, Filippo & Dufour, Alfonso & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5511-5525.
    4. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    5. : Haitao Li & Gi H. Kim & Weina Zhang, 2010. "The CDS-Bond Basis and the Cross Section of Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers wpn10-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    6. Bhanot, Karan & Burns, Natasha & Hunter, Delroy & Williams, Michael, 2014. "News spillovers from the Greek debt crisis: Impact on the Eurozone financial sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 51-63.
    7. Jorge M. Andraz & Cristina M. Viegas & Nélia M. Norte, 2016. "On the relationship between sovereign bonds and credit default swaps in Portugal," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 18-36, March.
    8. : Haitao Li & Weina Zhang & Gi H. Kim, 2011. "The CDS-Bond Basis Arbitrage and the Cross Section of Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers wpn11-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    9. Luciana Barbosa & Sónia Costa, 2010. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the euro area in," Working Papers w201022, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item


    corporate bond spreads; Credit Default Swap Spreads; liquidity;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.