Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics
In a simple, forward looking univariate model of price determination we investigate the evolution of expectations dynamics in the presence of two types of agents: fundamentalists and chartists. In particular, we combine evolutionary selection among heterogeneous classes of models through predictor choice dynamics based on a logit model, with adaptive learning in the form of parameters updating within each class of rules. We find that, for different parameterizations, it can happen that fundamentalists drive chartists completely out of the market or vice versa, and also that heterogeneous equilibria in which fundamentalists and chartists coexist are possible. Interestingly, though, only equilibria in which fundamentalists outperform chartists turn out to be adaptively learnable by agents.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Brock, W.A., 1995.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Bennett McCallum, 1999.
"Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002.
"Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
- Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004.
"Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?,"
Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics
04/13, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 01/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 501, Department of Economics.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003.
"Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1981.
"On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model,"
9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Branch William & McGough Bruce, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
- Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
- Pietro Dindo & Cees Diks, 2007.
"Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents,"
wp07-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Diks, Cees & Dindo, Pietro, 2008. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1432-1465, May.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Eran A. Guse, 2008.
"Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning, and Evolutionary Dynamics,"
09-01, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
- Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
- Lasselle, Laurence & Svizzero, Serge & Tisdell, Clem, 2005.
"Stability And Cycles In A Cobweb Model With Heterogeneous Expectations,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(05), pages 630-650, November.
- Laurence LASSELLE & Serge SVIZZERO & Clem TISDELL, 2004. "Stability and Cycles in a Cobweb Model with Heterogeneous Expectations," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/03, European University Institute.
- Laurence Lasselle & Serge Svizzero & Clem Tisdell, 2007. "Stability and Cycles in a Cobweb Model with Heterogeneous Expectations," CDMA Working Paper Series 200706, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1996. "Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-201, November.
- Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
- Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:776-792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.