IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

House price, mortgage premium, and business fluctuations

  • Chen, Nan-Kuang
  • Cheng, Han-Liang
  • Mao, Ching-Sheng

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of mortgage premium to characterize the relationship between the housing market and business cycle for the U.S. We find that mortgage premium is crucial for the amplification and propagation of the model to match the main properties of U.S. housing market and business cycles. The counterfactual analysis suggests that had the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate in 2003Q1, it would have curbed the housing market boom before the crisis, yet failed to alleviate the precipitous decline in housing market activity after the crisis. Moreover, the pre-emptive monetary policy aimed to contain the housing market boom can effectively lower volatilities of major economic aggregates; however, it also exerts a significantly negative effect on the levels of these economic aggregates. Thus, using monetary policy to stabilize asset price inflation involves a trade-off between the volatility and the level of economic activity.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312000545
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1388-1398

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1388-1398
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W.R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
  2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  3. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  4. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  5. Gomes, Joao F & Yaron, Amir & Zhang, Lu, 2003. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Fran�ois Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
  7. Mark Doms & Fred Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "Subprime mortgage delinquency rates," Working Paper Series 2007-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Daria Finocchiaro & Virginia Queijo Heideken, 2013. "Do Central Banks React to House Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1659-1683, December.
  10. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2006. "International business cycles with domestic and foreign lenders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2267-2282, November.
  11. Zvi Hercowitz & Jeffrey C. Campbell, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," 2005 Meeting Papers 120, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  14. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring Financial Stability: Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
  16. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
  18. Dupor, Bill & Han, Jing & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2009. "What do technology shocks tell us about the New Keynesian paradigm?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 560-569, May.
  19. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
  20. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
  22. Jin, Yi & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2010. "Real Estate, the External Finance Premium and Business Investment: A Quantitative Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 26722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January.
  24. De Graeve Ferre, 2007. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 83, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  25. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
  26. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334.
  27. Morris Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
  29. Mishkin, F S., 2008. "How should we respond to asset price bubbles?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 65-74, October.
  30. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Andrew Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  32. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  33. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  34. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
  35. DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, . "Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy," EcoMod2003 330700042, EcoMod.
  36. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," Finance 9810003, EconWPA.
  37. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, .
  40. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2007. "Real estate and optimal public policy in a credit-constrained economy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-166, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1388-1398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.