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The impact of house prices on consumer credit: evidence from an internet bank

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  • Christopher Crowe
  • Rodney Ramcharan

Abstract

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit markets well beyond the mortgage segment. Using new data from Prosper.com, a peer to peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, we find evidence that home owners in states with declining house prices face higher interest rates and greater rationing of credit, while also becoming delinquent faster. Investigating the mechanism, we find separate supply and demand effects, and especially large effects for those subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely to be most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important part in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.

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  • Christopher Crowe & Rodney Ramcharan, 2012. "The impact of house prices on consumer credit: evidence from an internet bank," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-60
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    2. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    3. Demir, Tolga & Mohammadi, Ali & Shafi, Kourosh, 2022. "Crowdfunding as gambling: Evidence from repeated natural experiments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Jing You & Xinxin Ding & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Sangui Wang, 2015. "Lofty pine and clinging vine: The educational 'Great Gatsby Curve' and the role of house prices," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-147, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Efraim Benmelech & Ralf R. Meisenzahl & Rodney Ramcharan, 2017. "The Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Automobiles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 317-365.
    6. SY Mouhamadou, 2015. "Working Paper 228 - Overborrowing and Balance of Payments Imbalances in a Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 2320, African Development Bank.
    7. Brett A. Mccully & Karen M. Pence & Daniel J. Vine, 2019. "How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1403-1426, August.
    8. Andreas Dietrich & Reto Rey, 2020. "What Matters to Individual Investors: Price Setting in Online Auctions of P2P Consumer Loans," Papers 2003.11347, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    9. Jagtiani, Julapa & Lemieux, Catharine, 2018. "Do fintech lenders penetrate areas that are underserved by traditional banks?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 43-54.
    10. Sewin Chan & Andrew Haughwout & Andrew Hayashi & Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, 2016. "Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 393-413, March.
    11. Yiyi Bai & Zhisheng Li & Huan Liu, 2019. "Financial outreach and household financial constraint," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1503-1523, March.
    12. Kapinos, Pavel & Gurley-Calvez, Tami & Kapinos, Kandice, 2016. "(Un)expected housing price changes: Identifying the drivers of small business finance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 79-94.
    13. Chen, Xin & Qin, Yaohua & Xiao, He & Zhang, Yifei, 2019. "Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China," MPRA Paper 95375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2019. "Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 325-340, January.
    15. Mouhamadou Sy, 2016. "Overborrowing and Balance of Payments Imbalances in a Monetary Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 67-98, February.
    16. Pankaj Kumar Maskara & Emre Kuvvet & Gengxuan Chen, 2021. "The role of P2P platforms in enhancing financial inclusion in the United States: An analysis of peer‐to‐peer lending across the rural–urban divide," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 747-774, September.
    17. Demir, Tolga & Mohammad, Ali & Shafi, Kourosh, 2019. "Crowdfunding as Gambling: Evidence from Repeated Natural Experiments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 481, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    18. Jing You & Xinxin Ding & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Sangui Wang, 2015. "Lofty pine and clinging vine: The educational ‘Great Gatsby Curve’ and the role of house prices," WIDER Working Paper Series 147, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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