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Subprime mortgage delinquency rates

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Doms
  • Frederick T. Furlong
  • John Krainer

Abstract

We evaluate the importance of three different channels for explaining the recent performance of subprime mortgages. First, the riskiness of the subprime borrowing pool may have increased. Second, pockets of regional economic weakness may have helped push a larger proportion of subprime borrowers into delinquency. Third, for a variety of reasons, the recent history of local house price appreciation and the degree of house price deceleration may have affected delinquency rates on subprime mortgages. While we find a role for all three candidate explanations, patterns in recent house price appreciation are far and away the best single predictor of delinquency levels and changes in delinquencies. Importantly, after controlling for the current level of house price appreciation, measures of house price deceleration remain significant predictors of changes in subprime delinquencies. The results point to a possible role for changes in house price expectations for explaining changes in delinquencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Doms & Frederick T. Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "Subprime mortgage delinquency rates," Working Paper Series 2007-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-33
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2007/wp07-33bk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Doms & Frederick T. Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "House prices and subprime mortgage delinquencies," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun8.
    2. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2006. "The macroeconomic transition to high household debt," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    4. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    6. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56.
    7. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blackburn, McKinley L. & Vermilyea, Todd, 2012. "The prevalence and impact of misstated incomes on mortgage loan applications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-168.
    2. Carolina Reid & Elizabeth Laderman, 2009. "The untold costs of subprime lending: examining the links among higher-priced lending, foreclosures and race in California," Community Development Investment Center Working Paper 2009-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. T.V.S. Ramamohan Rao, 2010. "Financial crisis, efficient bailouts, and regulatory policy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 167-188.
    4. Eric Doviak & Sean MacDonald, 2012. "Who Defaults on their Home Mortgage?," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 43(1), pages 75-98.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    7. J. Michael Collins & Carolina Reid, 2010. "Who receives a mortgage modification? Race and income differentials in loan workouts," Community Development Investment Center Working Paper 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. LaCour-Little, Michael & Calhoun, Charles A. & Yu, Wei, 2011. "What role did piggyback lending play in the housing bubble and mortgage collapse?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 81-100, June.
    9. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    10. Abdala Rioja, Yamile E, 2011. "All Things Considered: The Interaction of the Reasons for the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 33408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    12. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy & Munpyung O, 2009. "Mortgage default and mortgage valuation," Working Paper Series 2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang & Mao, Ching-Sheng, 2012. "House price, mortgage premium, and business fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1388-1398.
    14. Jihad Dagher & Ning Fu, 2017. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 996-1024, June.

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    Keywords

    Mortgage loans ; Housing - Prices;

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