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Error correction dynamics of house prices: an equilibrium benchmark

  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

    (City University of Hong Kong)

Central to recent debates on the "mis-pricing" in the housing market and the proactive policy of central bank is the determination of the "fundamental house price." This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that produces reduced-form dynamics that are consistent with the error-correction models proposed by Malpezzi (1999) and Capozza et al (2004). The dynamics of equilibrium house prices are tied to the dynamics of the house-price-to-income ratio. This paper also shows that house prices and incomes should be co-integrated, and hence provides a justification of using co-integration tests to detect possible "mis-pricing" in the housing market.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 177.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 13 May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:177
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  1. Harald Uhlig & Stefan Ried, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Real Estate," 2009 Meeting Papers 429, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Staff Report 178, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Morris Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Sven Rady & François Ortalo-Magné, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 470, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2003. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 03-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  7. Roger E.A. Farmer & Tao Zha & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2009. "Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 14710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/187, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  10. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  11. Hercovitz, Z. & Sampson, M., 1989. "Output Growth, The Real Wage, And Employment Fluctuations," RCER Working Papers 179, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  12. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2008. "The Political Economy of the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 14468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  16. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Discussion Papers 00004, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  17. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2011. "House Price, Mortgage Premium, and Business Fluctuations," Working Papers 192011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  18. Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2009. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Working Papers 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
  20. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  21. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2007. "Real estate and optimal public policy in a credit-constrained economy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-166, June.
  22. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-214, December.
  23. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  24. Davis, Morris A. & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "Housing, home production, and the equity- and value-premium puzzles," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 81-91, June.
  25. Yi Jin & Charles K.Y. Leung & Zhixiong Zeng, 2012. "Real Estate, the External Finance Premium and Business Investment: A Quantitative Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 167-195, 03.
  26. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November.
  27. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2002. "Further Inspection Of The Stochastic Growth Model By An Analytical Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 748-757, November.
  28. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Should the optimal portfolio be region-specific? A multi-region model with monetary policy and asset price co-movements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 293-304, May.
  29. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
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