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Error correction dynamics of house prices: An equilibrium benchmark

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  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

Abstract

Central to recent debates on the “mis-pricing” in the housing market and the proactive policy of central bank is the determination of the “fundamental house price.” This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that produces reduced-form dynamics that are consistent with the error-correction models proposed by Malpezzi (1999) and Capozza et al. (2004). The dynamics of equilibrium house prices are tied to the dynamics of the house-price-to-income ratio. This paper also shows that house prices and incomes should be co-integrated, and hence provides a justification of using co-integration tests to detect possible “mis-pricing” in the housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2014. "Error correction dynamics of house prices: An equilibrium benchmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:25:y:2014:i:c:p:75-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2014.05.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Hui An & Lijie Yu & Rakesh Gupta, 2016. "Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 451-475, December.
    3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    4. Chen, Jie & Hu, Mingzhi & Lin, Zhenguo, 2019. "Does housing unaffordability crowd out elites in Chinese superstar cities?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Darius Kulikauskas, 2015. "Measuring fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach," ERES eres2015_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    6. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    7. Cai,Yongyang & Selod,Harris & Steinbuks,Jevgenijs, 2015. "Urbanization and property rights," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7486, The World Bank.
    8. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Dynamic price–volume causality in the American housing market: A signal of market conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 385-400.
    9. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    10. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng, 2017. "House price to income ratio and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon forecastability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 293-311, August.
    11. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    12. Shanggang Yin & Zhifei Ma & Weixuan Song & Chunhui Liu, 2019. "Spatial Justice of a Chinese Metropolis: A Perspective on Housing Price-to-Income Ratios in Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Availability, Affordability and Volatility: The Case of the Hong Kong Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 383-428.
    14. Tommy Wu & Michael Cheng & Ken Wong, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of Hong Kong's housing price dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 312-331, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental house price; Error-correction model; Cointegration; House price-to-income ratio; Endogenous house price and income;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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