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An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles

  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one that provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, we suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signalling approach, logit and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of the house price bubbles than the signalling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, our method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to timely detect the house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.376599.de/dp1142.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1142.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1142
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  2. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Jan-Oliver Menz & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "What Drives Housing Prices Down?: Evidence from an International Panel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 758, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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  9. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
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  16. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "The Role of Asset Markets for Private Consumption: Evidence from Paneleconometric Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 872, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  17. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
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  19. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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