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An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles

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  • Dreger, Christian
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.

Abstract

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: A signalling approach, a logit model, and a probit model. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of house price bubbles than the signalling approach. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, this method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to quickly detect house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20138
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-8
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/71403/1/739273035.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Marsay, David, 2016. "Decision-making under radical uncertainty: An interpretation of Keynes' treatise," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-31.
    3. López-Laborda, Julio & Peña, Guillermo, 2017. "Does financial VAT affect the size of the financial sector?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 11, pages 1-28.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; early warning system; OECD countries;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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