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An early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubbles

  • Dreger, Christian
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of fundamental and filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one providing the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signaling approach, logit, and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of house price bubbles than the signaling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in the housing market. Thus, this method can be used by policymakers in their attempts to timely detect house price bubbles and to attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2012-44.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201244
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  1. Muellbauer, John, 2008. "Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 4694, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
  4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Jan-Oliver Menz & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
  5. Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 101, pages 29-45.
  6. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
  7. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2012. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6px1d1sc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets," NBER Working Papers 13921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  11. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  12. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  13. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
  14. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  15. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  16. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "The Role of Asset Markets for Private Consumption: Evidence from Paneleconometric Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 872, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  17. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 0888, European Central Bank.
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