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Wealth effects in emerging economies

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  • Alessio Ciarlone

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth � proxied by house and stock market prices � on private consumption for a panel of sixteen emerging economies in Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Using recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationship between the variables of interest. Both real and financial wealth are found to affect household consumption positively in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being greater than that of stock market wealth. When the model is run separately for the two groups of countries, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally greater in Central and Eastern European economies than in Asian ones, which make the former more vulnerable to further adverse developments in the housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_843_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivana Jovanović, 2016. "Modelling Consumption On The Basis Of The Complete System Of National Accounts In Serbia – The Wealth Effect," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(208), pages 49-72, January -.
    2. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; wealth effects; emerging markets; panel co-integration; pooled mean group estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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