IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1784.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. This reinforces the conclusions reported in our previous analysis. In contrast to our previous analysis, however, we do find -- based on data which include the recent volatility in asset markets -- that the effects of declines in housing wealth in reducing consumption are at least as large as the effects of increases in housing wealth in increasing the course of household consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2011. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1784, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d17/d1784.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
    3. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2009. "How Housing Busts End: Home Prices, User Cost, and Rigidities During Down Cycles," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6mh9m4ff, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    4. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    6. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    7. Karl Case & John Quigley, 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-180.
    8. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kennickell, Arthur B & Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1997. "Retrospective Reporting of Household Wealth: Evidence from the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 452-463, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Housing wealth and consumption – an upper bound, not an estimate
      by Matt Nolan in TVHE on 2013-01-28 02:57:48

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    2. Anna Ząbkowicz & Sławomir Czech, 2016. "Revisiting conventional wisdom: does financialization have to leave sovereigns subordinated?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 47.
    3. Sung, Jaesang, 2017. "The Impact of Housing Prices on Health in U.S. Before, During and After the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 78831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Joshua Goodman & Adam Levitin, 2014. "Bankruptcy Law and the Cost of Credit: The Impact of Cramdown on Mortgage Interest Rates," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 139-158.
    6. Calomiris, Charles W. & Longhofer, Stanley D. & Miles, William, 2013. "The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution and Wealth Shares," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 049-099, July.
    7. Sheng Guo & William Hardin, 2015. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," Working Papers 1506, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    8. Jakob B Madsen & Hui Yao, 2012. "Wealth Effects In Consumption: The Financial Accelerator And Banks’ Willingness To Lend," Monash Economics Working Papers 56-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Mouhamadou Sy, 2016. "Overborrowing and Balance of Payments Imbalances in a Monetary Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 67-98, February.
    10. Midrigan, Virgiliu & Philippon, Thomas, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
    13. Dimitra Kontana & Fotios Siokis, 2019. "Revisiting the Relationship between Financial Wealth, Housing Wealth, and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 2019_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2019.
    14. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Le, Kien T. & Seah, Kiat Ying, 2013. "Changes in the white–black house value distribution gap from 1997 to 2005," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 132-141.
    15. Arrondel, L. & Savignac, F. & Tracol, K., 2011. "Wealth Effects on Consumption Plans: French Households in the Crisis," Working papers 344, Banque de France.
    16. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_750, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Daniel H. Cooper & Karen E. Dynan, 2013. "Wealth shocks and macroeconomic dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2013. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 101-128, July.
    2. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    3. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    4. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    5. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vansteenkiste, Isabel S., 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging market economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 155-166.
    6. Brady Ryan R & Stimel Derek S, 2011. "How the Housing and Financial Wealth Effects Have Changed over Time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, August.
    7. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG & Joe Cho Yiu NG, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," ISER Discussion Paper 1030, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    9. Marco Percoco, 2015. "Homeownership and saving preferences: evidence from Italy," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 141-149, July.
    10. Mi Diao & Yi Fan & Tien Foo Sing, 2018. "Demand restrictions; government interventions; resale public housing market; private housing market; housing wealth," ERES eres2018_32, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    12. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck, 2020. "Dysfunctional markets: A spray of prey perspective," Working Papers of BETA 2020-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Turner, Tracy M. & Luea, Heather, 2009. "Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 104-114, June.
    14. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    15. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2220-2240, September.
    16. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    17. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    18. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, June.
    19. Robert J. Shiller, 2008. "Derivatives Markets for Home Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1648, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Simone Salotti, 2012. "Wealth Effects in the US: Evidence from the Combination of Two Surveys," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 67-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Nonfinancial wealth; Housing market; Real estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Regan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.