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Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

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Abstract

We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. This reinforces the conclusions reported in our previous analysis. In contrast to our previous analysis, however, we do find -- based on data which include the recent volatility in asset markets -- that the effects of declines in housing wealth in reducing consumption are at least as large as the effects of increases in housing wealth in increasing the course of household consumption.

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  • Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2011. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1784, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1784
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    1. Housing wealth and consumption – an upper bound, not an estimate
      by Matt Nolan in TVHE on 2013-01-28 02:57:48

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    Cited by:

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    2. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2012. "The effects of financial and real wealth on consumption: new evidence from OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 409-425, March.
    3. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    4. Joshua Goodman & Adam Levitin, 2014. "Bankruptcy Law and the Cost of Credit: The Impact of Cramdown on Mortgage Interest Rates," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 139-158.
    5. SY Mouhamadou, 2015. "Working Paper 228 - Overborrowing and Balance of Payments Imbalances in a Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 2320, African Development Bank.
    6. Anna Ząbkowicz & Sławomir Czech, 2016. "Revisiting conventional wisdom: does financialization have to leave sovereigns subordinated?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 47.
    7. Sung, Jaesang, 2017. "The Impact of Housing Prices on Health in U.S. Before, During and After the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 78831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
    9. Erwan Quintin & Morris Davis, 2014. "Default When House Prices are Uncertain," 2014 Meeting Papers 246, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Midrigan, Virgiliu & Philippon, Thomas, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Calomiris, Charles W. & Longhofer, Stanley D. & Miles, William, 2013. "The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution and Wealth Shares," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 049-099, July.
    13. Sheng Guo & William Hardin, 2015. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," Working Papers 1506, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    14. Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, 2021. "Predicting housing prices. A long term housing price path for Spanish regions," LARES lares-2021-4dra, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).
    15. Jakob B Madsen & Hui Yao, 2012. "Wealth Effects In Consumption: The Financial Accelerator And Banks’ Willingness To Lend," Monash Economics Working Papers 56-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    16. Dimitra Kontana & Fotios Siokis, 2019. "Revisiting the Relationship between Financial Wealth, Housing Wealth, and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 2019_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2019.
    17. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Le, Kien T. & Seah, Kiat Ying, 2013. "Changes in the white–black house value distribution gap from 1997 to 2005," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 132-141.
    18. Dasgupta,Basab & Lall,Somik V. & Lozano Gracia,Nancy, 2014. "Urbanization and housing investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 115004, The World Bank.
    19. Mouhamadou Sy, 2016. "Overborrowing and Balance of Payments Imbalances in a Monetary Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 67-98, February.
    20. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Masaya Sakuragawa, 2013. "Bubble cycle," Working Papers e055, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    22. Arrondel, L. & Savignac, F. & Tracol, K., 2011. "Wealth Effects on Consumption Plans: French Households in the Crisis," Working papers 344, Banque de France.
    23. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_750, Levy Economics Institute.
    24. Daniel H. Cooper & Karen E. Dynan, 2013. "Wealth shocks and macroeconomic dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Nonfinancial wealth; Housing market; Real estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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