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How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets

  • Karl Case
  • John Quigley

This paper considers dynamics in the reversal of booms in the housing market. We analyze three related mechanisms which govern the propagation of changes in the housing market throughout the rest of an advanced economy: wealth effects, income effects, and effects through financial markets. As the decade-long boom in the US housing market unwinds, we anticipate that there will be small wealth effects transmitted to the economy, but there will be large income effects affecting the rest of the economy and substantial financial market effects. If the current decline in housing starts and residential investment echoes the declines of the last three housing downturns, we estimate that gross national product (GNP) growth will be reduced by close to 3 per cent. Beyond the decline in housing investment, the recent turmoil in financial markets makes a recession induced by housing market conditions increasingly likely.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Journal of Housing Policy.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 161-180

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Handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:8:y:2008:i:2:p:161-180
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  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dwight M. Jaffee & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Policy, Mortgage Policy, and the Federal Housing Administration," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 97-125 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wick37-1, December.
  4. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2007.
  6. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Chapters, in: Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936, pages 1-20 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," NBER Working Papers 2748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2007. "The Housing Finance Revolution," Working Paper 9095, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  10. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
  11. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1, December.
  12. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
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