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Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Mauro Costantini
  • Antonio Paradiso

Abstract

In this paper we examine the role of mortgage equity withdrawal in explaining the decline of the US saving rate, since when house prices rise and mortgage rates are low, homeowners have an incentive to withdraw housing equity and this may affect the saving rate. We estimate a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model including the saving rate, asset prices, equity withdrawal and interest rates and find that indeed mortgage equity withdrawal is a key determinant of the observed saving pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1232, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barrell, Ray & Costantini, Mauro & Meco, Iris, 2015. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence for Italy and the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 316-323.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving rate; Mortgage equity withdrawal; Asset prices; Mortgage rates; Vector Error Correction; Impulse response analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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