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US inflation and consumption: A long-term perspective with a level shift

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  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Casadio, Paolo
  • Rao, B. Bhaskara

Abstract

This article examines the existence and stability of the consumption function in the United States of America (US) beginning in the 1950s. In order to obtain a stable long run relationship, we have introduced two innovative elements into the analysis of the life-cycle of the consumption function with wealth effects: 1) a shift level break in the cointegrating relationship, and 2) using inflation as an additional explanatory variable. By implementing a well structured estimation strategy, we found that after taking the level shift into account, a cointegrating equation, including inflation, exists and is more stable for the critical sub-samples than traditional consumption function models.

Suggested Citation

  • Paradiso, Antonio & Casadio, Paolo & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "US inflation and consumption: A long-term perspective with a level shift," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1837-1849.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1837-1849
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.037
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    4. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    5. Barrell, Ray & Costantini, Mauro & Meco, Iris, 2015. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence for Italy and the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 316-323.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US consumption; Inflation; Interest rate; MEW; Level shift; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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