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Time-Varying Effects of Housing and Stock Prices on U.S. Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (College of Business, University of Las Vegas, Nevada)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price positively affects consumption while the stock price negatively affects consumption. These opposite responses to changes in housing and stock prices suggest different mechanisms through which wealth affects consumption. Further, the housing price effect proves larger in absolute value than the stock price effect after 1980. Between 1980 and 2007, housing wealth generally exerted a larger effect on consumption. This sub-period includes the 1997/2002 asset price boom/bust where house prices continued to rise moderately as stock prices fell. Finally, the co-occurrence of the decline in both housing and stock prices during the 2007-2009 episode produced bigger effects of the housing price for the first five years of the impulse responses while the higher magnitude of the stock price effect appears in the 6-year horizon. These findings suggest that the magnitude of the relative price effects differs with both time and horizons and also depends on whether prices increase or decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Housing and Stock Prices on U.S. Consumption," Working Papers 201325, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201325
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi-Wei Su & Xiao-Cui Yin & Ran Tao, 2018. "How do housing prices affect consumption in China? New evidence from a continuous wavelet analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, September.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-466 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Mehmet Balcilar & Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test," Working Papers 201411, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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