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Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test

  • Furkan Emirmahmutoglu

    ()

    (Department of Econometrics, Gazi University, Turkey)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus,via Mersin 10, Turkey)

  • Nicholas Apergis

    ()

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece)

  • Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Tsangyao Chang

    ()

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real per capita personal income (proxying output), which allows us to account not only for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, but also for interdependency between the two asset markets. Empirical results reveal the existence of a unidirectional causality running from both asset prices to output. This confirms the leading indicator property of asset prices for the real economy, while also substantiating the wealth and/or collateral transmission mechanism. Moreover, the absence of reverse causation from the personal income per capita to both housing and stock prices tend to suggest that non-economic fundamentals may have played an important role in the formation of bubbles in these markets.

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Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201411.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201411
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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  3. Rangan Gupta & Faaiqa Hartley, 2013. "The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output in South Africa," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(3), pages 239-291, December.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," IEPR Working Papers 05.14, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  5. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The causal relationship between house prices and growth in the nine provinces of South Africa: evidence from panel - Granger causality tests," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 345-358.
  6. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP 412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2005. "The life-cycle effects of house price changes," Working Papers 05-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Wendy Nyakabawo & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U.S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working papers 2013-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "THE IMPACT OF HOUSE PRICES ON CONSUMPTION IN SOUTH AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL-LEVEL PANEL VARs," Working Papers 201211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Norman Miller & Liang Peng & Michael Sklarz, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 522-541, May.
  14. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2004. "House Prices and Consumer Welfare," Research Papers 1840, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  15. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship between House Prices and Output: Evidence from US Metropolitan Statistical Areas," Working Papers 201349, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  16. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
  17. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
  18. Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Some aspects of causal relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-71, January.
  19. Pesaran, M.H. & Ullah, A. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Markus Demary, 2010. "The interplay between output, inflation, interest rates and house prices: international evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, April.
  21. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between House Prices and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests," Working Papers 201317, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  22. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Kose, Nezir, 2011. "Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 870-876, May.
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