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Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test

Author

Listed:
  • Furkan Emirmahmutoglu

    () (Department of Econometrics, Gazi University, Turkey)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    () (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus,via Mersin 10, Turkey)

  • Nicholas Apergis

    () (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece)

  • Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Tsangyao Chang

    () (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real per capita personal income (proxying output), which allows us to account not only for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, but also for interdependency between the two asset markets. Empirical results reveal the existence of a unidirectional causality running from both asset prices to output. This confirms the leading indicator property of asset prices for the real economy, while also substantiating the wealth and/or collateral transmission mechanism. Moreover, the absence of reverse causation from the personal income per capita to both housing and stock prices tend to suggest that non-economic fundamentals may have played an important role in the formation of bubbles in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Mehmet Balcilar & Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test," Working Papers 201411, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201411
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
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    3. Rangan Gupta & Faaiqa Hartley, 2013. "The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output in South Africa," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(3), pages 239-291, December.
    4. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The causal relationship between house prices and growth in the nine provinces of South Africa: evidence from panel - Granger causality tests," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 345-358.
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    8. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between House Prices and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests," Working Papers 201317, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    14. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship between House Prices and Output: Evidence from US Metropolitan Statistical Areas," Working Papers 201349, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    8. Chi-Wei SU & Zong-Liang YAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG, 2016. "The relationship between output and asset prices: A time – and frequency – varying approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 57-76, Spring.
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    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; stock prices; output; granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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