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Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Puente-Ajovín, Miguel
  • Sanso-Navarro, Marcos

Abstract

This paper analyzes the possible presence of Granger causality between debt and growth in 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2009. This is done considering not only government debt but also non-financial corporate and household debt. The panel bootstrap Granger causality test applied allows us to control for both the presence of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Our results barely provide evidence against the null hypothesis according to which government debt does not cause real GDP growth. More interestingly, we find evidence against the absence of causality from non-financial private debt – especially that of households – to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:35:y:2015:i:c:p:66-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.09.007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "In search of causality between debt and growth: a graph theoretic approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 677-687.
    2. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    3. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:102-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
    5. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    6. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    7. Kresimir Cicak & Petar Soric, 2015. "The Interrelationship of FDI and GDP in European Transition Countries," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 41-58, March.
    8. repec:eee:jimfin:v:83:y:2018:i:c:p:55-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:136-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Winnie Abdulnasir, 2016. "Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5306868, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. repec:bla:scotjp:v:64:y:2017:i:4:p:349-375 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Juergen Amann & Paul Middleditch, 2017. "Growth in a time of austerity: evidence from the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 349-375, September.
    13. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    14. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate:A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," ISER Discussion Paper 0955, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Growth; Granger causality; SUR estimation; Bootstrap;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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