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Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis

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  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Malinen, Tuomas

Abstract

We estimate panel vector autoregressions to analyze the highly disputed relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect of debt on growth, even for higher levels of debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth on debt, which explains the negative correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:403-407
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.037
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    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
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    7. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Aid and Income: Another Time-series Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-30.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "In search of causality between debt and growth: a graph theoretic approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 677-687.
    2. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:102-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.
    4. Ahmet F. Aysan & Mustafa Disli & Huseyin Ozturk, 2017. "Bank Lending Channel In A Dual Banking System:Why Are Islamic Banks So Responsive?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/938, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Javier Sosvilla-Rivero, 2016. "Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1602, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    6. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper series 13_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth – Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship," MPRA Paper 64105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ahlborn, Markus & Schweickert, Rainer, 2015. "Public debt and economic growth: Economic systems matter," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2015/02, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    9. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    10. Ahmet F. Aysan & Mustafa Disli & Meryem Duygun & Huseyin Ozturk, 2017. "Religiosity Versus Rationality: Depositor Behavior In Islamic And Conventional Banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/933, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2014. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp187, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:2a:p:607-633 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. repec:bla:coecpo:v:35:y:2017:i:4:p:751-766 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:883-894 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. João Basilio Pereima & Manuela Merki & Fernando Motta Correia, 2016. "Economic Growth And Public Debt: Addressing Unobserved Heterogeneity," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 101, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    19. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "The Dynamics of Government Debt and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 63693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate:A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," ISER Discussion Paper 0955, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    21. repec:eee:wdevel:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:178-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    23. Sinan Esen & Korhan Gokmenoglu, 2016. "Financial Centres Index and GDP Growth," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 198-206, April.
    24. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    25. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Debt share; GDP growth;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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