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Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A Panel VAR analysis

  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Malinen, Tuomas

We estimate a panel vector autoregressive model to analyze the highly disputed relationship between debt and growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect on debt to growth, even for higher levels of sovereign debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth to debt, which explains the negative correlation.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52039.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52039
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  1. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
    [This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2013. "Aid and income: Another time-series perspective," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
  6. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
  7. Alexandru MINEA & Antoine PARENT, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers 201218, CERDI.
  8. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1450, European Central Bank.
  9. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  10. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
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