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Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Zhihui Lv

    () (KLASMOE & School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    () (Department of Finance, Fintech Center, and Big Data Research Center, Asia University, Taichung 41354, Taiwan
    Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
    Department of Economics and Finance, The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, Shatin 999077, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract

Unlike the existing literature, which primarily studies the impact of only monetary policy shocks on real estate investment trusts (REITs), this paper develops a change-point vector autoregressive (VAR) model and then analyzes, for the first time, regime-specific impact of demand, supply, monetary policy, and spread yield shocks, identified using sign-restrictions, on US REITs returns. The model first isolates four major macroeconomic regimes in the US since the 1970s and discloses important changes to the statistical properties of REITs returns and its responses to the identified shocks. A variance decomposition analysis revealed aggregate supply shocks to have dominated in the early part of the sample period, and monetary policy and spread shocks at the end. Our results imply that ignoring other possible shocks in the model is likely to lead to incorrect inferences, and over-reliance on (conventional) monetary policy in correcting for possible bubbles in the REITs sector, which it will fail to rectify, given the importance of other shocks driving the REITs sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:10:p:2776-:d:231284
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    change-point VAR model; macroeconomic shocks; US REITs sector;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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