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High Frequency Impact Of Monetary Policy And Macroeconomic Surprises On Us Msas, Aggregate Us Housing Returns And Asymmetric Volatility

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  • Wendy Nyakabawo

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, SOUTH AFRICA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, SOUTH AFRICA)

  • Hardik A. Marfatia

    (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, BBH 344G, 5500 N. St. Louis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60625, USA)

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises on the U.S housing market returns and volatility at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and aggregate level using a GJR (or threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1993). Using daily data and sampling periods which cover both the conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, empirical results show that monetary policy surprises have a greater impact on the volatility of housing market returns across time with particularly pronounced effect during the conventional monetary policy period. We also show that macroeconomic surprises do not have a significant impact on housing returns for most MSAs for the full sample, conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Wendy Nyakabawo & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2018. "High Frequency Impact Of Monetary Policy And Macroeconomic Surprises On Us Msas, Aggregate Us Housing Returns And Asymmetric Volatility," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 204-229, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:204-229
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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
    2. Alola, Andrew & Asongu, Simplice & Alola, Uju, 2019. "House prices and tourism development in Cyprus: A contemporary perspective," MPRA Paper 101795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2021. "High-Frequency Contagion between Aggregate and Regional Housing Markets of the United States with Financial Assets: Evidence from Multichannel Tests," Working Papers 202159, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 241-261, July.
    7. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Raymond L. Aor & Afees A. Salisu & Isah J. Okpe, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of the Global Effects of US Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 89-114, December.
    9. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame, 2021. "Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Cepni, Oguzhan & Dul, Wiehan & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Jacobus Nel, 2022. "Do Climate Risks Predict US Housing Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Quantiles-Based Approach," Working Papers 202240, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Xin Sheng, 2022. "The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on housing returns and volatility: evidence from US state-level data," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 206-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Shivambu, Rinsuna, 2021. "Uncertainty and daily predictability of housing returns and volatility of the United States: Evidence from a higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 200-206.
    14. Chong-Chuo Chang & Kuen-Shiou Yang, 2021. "Loose monetary policy and firm uncertainty," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "High-Frequency Volatility Forecasting of US Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 283-317, February.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Damien Moodley, 2023. "Housing Search Activity and Quantiles-Based Predictability of Housing Price Movements in the United States," Working Papers 202335, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang, 2019. "Contagion between Stock and Real Estate Markets: International Evidence from a Local Gaussian Correlation Approach," Working Papers 201917, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Kola Ijasan & Peterson Owusu Junior & George Tweneboah & Tunbosun Oyedokun & Anokye M. Adam, 2021. "Analysing the relationship between global REITs and exchange rates: Fresh evidence from frequency-based quantile regressions," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 58-91, September.
    20. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Nonlinear contagion between stock and real estate markets: International evidence from a local Gaussian correlation approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2089-2109, April.
    21. Radoslaw Wolniak & Marcin Olkiewicz & Marta Szymczewska & Anna Olkiewicz, 2020. "The Functioning of the Real Estate Market: Dynamics of Price Formation and the Sale of Apartments," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 281-307.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises; Asymmetric GARCH; Housing market returns and volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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