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The Dynamics of U.S. REITs Returns to Uncertainty Shocks: A Proxy SVAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Oguzhan Cepni

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Anafartalar Mah. Istiklal Cad. No:10 06050 Ankara, Turkey)

  • Wiehan Dul

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on REITs returns over a monthly period from 1972:01 to 2015:12, and sub-samples from 1972:01 to 2009:06, and 2009:07 to 2015:12, to accommodate for the possible effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy decisions. We use the recently-proposed variations in the price of gold, around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty as an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Moreover, to control for news-related effects associated with these events, uncertainty and news shocks are jointly identified based on a set-identified proxy SVAR, as recently suggested in the VAR literature. Our results show that the uncertainty shock generates a larger negative impact on REITs returns over the post-GFC period to the extent that it also outweighs the impact of the otherwise dominant news (productivity) shocks. In addition, the impulse response dynamics related to the recursively identified uncertainty shock, as is standard in the literature, resembles the effects of a news shock, and somewhat contrary to intuition suggests that the impact of the uncertainty shock on REITs returns were higher during the pre-GFC era.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Cepni & Wiehan Dul & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "The Dynamics of U.S. REITs Returns to Uncertainty Shocks: A Proxy SVAR Approach," Working Papers 202001, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 202201, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Quantifying systemic risk in US industries using neural network quantile regression," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Connectedness; U.S. REITs; Proxy SVAR Model; Uncertainty; Monetary Policy Regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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