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Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach

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  • Chuliá, Helena
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Uribe, Jorge M.
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

In the wake of the recent financial crisis, a growing literature measures, and analyses the impact of uncertainty on international financial markets. These studies are primarily based on conditional mean-based models. Quantile models can be employed to capture the heavy-tails of stock returns, however, they are limited to causal relationships, and hence are silent about the sign and persistence of any uncertainty shocks – both of which are important information for investors. Our paper is the first to employ quantile impulse-response functions obtained from multivariate quantile models to analyze the impact of US policy and US equity market uncertainties on not only domestic stock returns, but also stock returns of mature and emerging markets. Using daily data over the period January 1998 to March 2016, we find that during episodes of financial distress, an uncertainty shock reduces stock market returns; both in mature and emerging markets, but in higher magnitudes for the latter, while it increases the highest quantiles of returns, only for the mature markets. Policy uncertainty is a less relevant factor, but it still impacts negatively the stock market dynamics during episodes of financial distress, especially for the emerging markets. These results contrast with the market reactions to uncertainty in the median scenarios, which tend to be insignificant in all the cases.

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  • Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:178-191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Persistence of Economic Uncertainty: A Comprehensive Analysis," Working Papers 201810, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Bonaccolto, G. & Caporin, M. & Gupta, R., 2018. "The dynamic impact of uncertainty in causing and forecasting the distribution of oil returns and risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 446-469.
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    4. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:87-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    6. repec:bis:bisbps:97 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wilson Donzwa & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers between Interest Rates and Equity Markets of Developed Economies: A Note," Working Papers 201764, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:04:n:s2010495217500166 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "On the Transmission Mechanism of Country-Specific and International Economic Uncertainty Spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR Connectedness Decomposition Approach," Working Papers 201829, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy and equity market uncertainties; Emerging and mature stock markets; Quantile vector autoregressive model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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