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Does US partisan conflict matter for the Euro area?

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  • Cheng, Chak Hung Jack
  • Hankins, William B.
  • Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy)

Abstract

This paper highlights the international transmission of political uncertainty originated from a US partisan conflict shock, a newly identified shock that transmits a type of uncertainty beyond the economic policy uncertainty spillovers identified by Colombo (2013). Using the recently developed US Partisan Conflict Index (USPC) developed by Azzimonti (2014), we find that a one standard deviation USPC shock leads to a 0.2 percent decline in European industrial production. We also show that, compared with US policy uncertainty shocks, a shock to US partisan conflict creates deeper and more persistent spill-over effects to the Euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Hankins, William B. & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2016. "Does US partisan conflict matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 64-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:138:y:2016:i:c:p:64-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.11.030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    3. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    4. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo, 2014. "Partisan conflict," Working Papers 14-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Jun 2014.
    7. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    8. Azzimonti, Marina & Talbert, Matthew, 2014. "Polarized business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 47-61.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 851-862, December.
    2. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    3. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    4. William B. Hankins & Anna‐Leigh Stone & Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2020. "Corporate decision making in the presence of political uncertainty: The case of corporate cash holdings," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 307-337, May.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on a Panel of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate, Trade and Financial Channels," Working Papers 201857, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Pan, Wei-Fong & Wang, Xinjie & Yang, Shanxiang, 2019. "Debt maturity, leverage, and political uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "Partisan Conflict and Income Inequality in the United States: A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 65-82, February.
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Does partisan conflict predict a reduction in US stock market (realized) volatility? Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile regression model☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 87-96.
    10. Gupta, Rangan & Mwamba, John W. Muteba & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The role of partisan conflict in forecasting the U.S. equity premium: A nonparametric approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 131-136.
    11. Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
    12. Hankins, William & Cheng, Chak & Chiu, Jeremy & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2016. "Does partisan conflict impact the cash holdings of firms? A sign restrictions approach," Bank of England working papers 638, Bank of England.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    14. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Refk Selmi & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Does Partisan Conflict Predict a Reduction in US Stock Market (Realized) Volatility? Evidence from a Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Model," Working Papers 201744, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partisan conflict; Economic policy uncertainty; U.S.–Euro area spillovers; Bayesian VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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