IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201360.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Stock Prices Related to Political Uncertainty Index in OECD Countries? Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Wen-Yi Chen

    (Center of Health Research and Development, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    (IPAG Lab, IPAG Business School, France.)

Abstract

This study applies bootstrap panel causality, proposed by Kónya (2006), to investigate causal link be-tween political uncertainty and stock price for seven OECD countries over the monthly period of 2001.01 to 2013.04. This modeling approach allows us to examine both the cross-sectional dependency and the country-specific heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that not all the countries are alike and that the theoretical prediction that stock prices fall at the announcement of a policy change is not always supported. Specifically, we find evidence of the stock price leading hypothesis for Italy and Spain, while the political uncertainty leading hypothesis cannot be rejected for the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in the remaining three countries (Canada, France, and Germany), while the feedback hypothesis, however, is never found.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Are Stock Prices Related to Political Uncertainty Index in OECD Countries? Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Working Papers 201360, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arzu Ozoguz, 2009. "Good Times or Bad Times? Investors' Uncertainty and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4377-4422, November.
    2. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    4. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    7. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    8. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    9. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    10. Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Tong Suk & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3158-3173.
    11. Jorg Breitung, 2005. "A Parametric approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 151-173.
    12. Bruno, Giuseppe & De Bonis, Riccardo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2012. "Do financial systems converge? New evidence from financial assets in OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-155.
    13. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    14. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    17. Rajan, Raghuram & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "Banks and Markets: the Changing Character of European Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Buch, Claudia M. & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "The integration of imperfect financial markets: Implications for business cycle volatility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 789-804, October.
    19. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    21. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    22. Eichler, Michael, 2007. "Granger causality and path diagrams for multivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 334-353, April.
    23. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    24. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    25. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    26. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
    27. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    28. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    29. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    30. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
    31. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    32. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    33. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2012. "Dynamic Co-movements between Stock Market Returns and Policy Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 42905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Granger, Clive W. J., 2003. "Some aspects of causal relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-71, January.
    35. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    36. Hã–Lzl, Werner, 2006. "Convergence of financial systems: towards an evolutionary perspective," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 67-90, April.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    38. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    39. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1992. "Stock return variation and expected dividends : A time-series and cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 177-210, April.
    40. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    41. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    42. Dzielinski, Michal, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty and its impact on the stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 167-175.
    43. Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed & Sahlstrom, Petri & Aijo, Janne, 2006. "Global stock market reactions to scheduled U.S. macroeconomic news announcements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 92-104, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:36 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-036 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tsung-Pao Wu & Shu-Bing Liu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2016. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-122, March.
    4. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    6. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    7. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    9. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
    10. Khalil Mhadhbi & Chokri Terzi & Ali Bouchrika, 2020. "Banking sector development and economic growth in developing countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2817-2836, June.
    11. Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 112-135, April.
    12. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Chow Sheung-Chi & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wong Wing-Keung, 2018. "Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-15, April.
    14. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    15. Lei-Ju Qiu & Shun-Bin Zhong & Bao-Wen Sun & Yu Song & Xiao-Hua Chen, 2021. "Is internet penetration narrowing the rural–urban income inequality? A cross-regional study of China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1795-1814, October.
    16. Philip Arestis & Ayşe Kaya & Hüseyin Şen, 2018. "Does fiscal consolidation promote economic growth and employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 289-312, November.
    17. Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
    18. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    19. Chu, Hsiao-Ping, 2012. "Oil consumption and output: What causes what? Bootstrap panel causality for 49 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 907-915.
    20. Luo, Yan & Zhang, Chenyang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    21. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Wen-Yi Chen, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth in 12 Asian countries: panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 282-287, February.
    22. Cristiane Gea & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Luciano Vereda & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2023. "Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Price; Political Uncertainty Index; Bootstrap Panel Causality Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.