Some problems in the testing of DSGE models
We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments and other features with data equivalents. We note that they select, scale and characterise the shocks without reference to the data; crucially they fail to use the joint distribution of the features under comparison. We illustrate this point by recomputing an assessment of a two-country model in a recent paper; we find that the paper's conclusions are essentially reversed.
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- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007.
"Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach,"
Working Paper Series
0722, European Central Bank.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, .
"The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates,"
11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003.
"An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009.
"Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference,"
Cardiff Economics Working Papers
E2009/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2009.
- Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 7385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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