What moves GNP?
This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real GNP. It does so by searching for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP for horizons between 0 and 5 years. We find that two shocks can typically explain more than 90\% of the variance at all horizons for real GNP. While one shock looks like a productivity shock in the line of the real business cycle literature, the other one seems to be wage-push or inflationary shock, unrelated to consumption or government spending and not induced by monetary policy. While the first shock can be viewed as a ''supply shock'', the second shock does not have an obvious ''demand shock'' interpretation.
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|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
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