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Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Casoli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Matteo Manera

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics, Management and Statistics – DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca)

  • Daniele Valenti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Environmental Science and Policy – DESP, University of Milano)

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian Structural VAR (SVAR) model to study the relationship between different kinds of energy shocks and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we include in our specification two separate energy markets (oil and natural gas) and two target macroeconomic variables, measuring inflation expectations and the realized headline inflation. Our results demonstrate that, during the last year, inflation in the Euro area is more affected from energy price shocks, particularly those coming from the natural gas sector. The high peaks of the Eurozone inflation are mainly associated with gas consumption demand shocks and, to a lesser extent, to oil and gas supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Casoli & Matteo Manera & Daniele Valenti, 2022. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," Working Papers 2022.45, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2022.45
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei, Zhaohao & Chai, Jian & Dong, Jichang & Lu, Quanying, 2022. "Understanding the linkage-dependence structure between oil and gas markets: A new perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    2. Daniele Valenti, 2022. "Modelling the Global Price of Oil: Is there any Role for the Oil Futures-spot Spread?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2019. "How do consumers assess the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    2. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy shocks; Oil and gas markets; Inflation; Bayesian Structural VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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