IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v92y2020ics0140988320302796.html

Integration reforms in the European natural gas market: A rolling-window spillover analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Broadstock, David C.
  • Li, Raymond
  • Wang, Linjin

Abstract

This paper revisits the topic of natural gas market integration across Europe. Against the backdrop of three EU gas directives aimed at creating competition and strengthening market connections, and the move towards hub trading and gas-on-gas pricing in the European markets, we adopt and extend the spillovers index due to Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) to examine the path of market connectivity over the period between 2005:7–2018:12. An initial estimation uncovers what might be deemed a ‘clunky’ evolution in the spillover index. We identify the cause of this, and devise a tilted ‘importance weighting based re-sampling’ rolling window estimation strategy which preserves the underlying evolutionary trend without overly weighting the importance of historic outliers. Our results show that although there are periods of deterioration, the level of market connectivity recovers, producing a generally increasing trend of market integration in our sample period. The connectivity index peaks at around 65%, i.e. a little above halfway through to full connectivity. We conclude that the European natural gas market has achieved a non-trivial, albeit not full, level of integration to-date.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadstock, David C. & Li, Raymond & Wang, Linjin, 2020. "Integration reforms in the European natural gas market: A rolling-window spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302796
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104939
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988320302796
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104939?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 166, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    6. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-302, January.
    7. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    8. repec:aen:journl:ej35-4-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Frank Asche, Petter Osmundsen, Ragnar Tveteras, 2001. "Market integration for natural gas in Europe," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 300-312.
    10. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
    11. Zhang, Bing & Wang, Peijie, 2014. "Return and volatility spillovers between china and world oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 413-420.
    12. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    13. repec:aen:journl:1993v14-04-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2012. "Toward the Integration of European Natural Gas Markets: A Time-Varying Approach," Post-Print hal-02562543, HAL.
    15. Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
    16. repec:aen:journl:1996v17-02-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    18. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, , vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, October.
    19. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
    20. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    2. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    4. Hudák, Milan & Čermáková, Klára & Kadeřábková, Božena & Popescu, Irina Alina & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2026. "From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Olivier Massol & Albert Banal-Estanol, 2018. "Market Power and Spatial Arbitrage between Interconnected Gas Hubs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 67-96, December.
    6. Slim Mseddi & Noureddine Benlagha, 2017. "An Analysis of Spillovers Between Islamic and Conventional Stock Bank Returns: Evidence from the GCC Countries," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 21(2), pages 91-132, June.
    7. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    8. Kyle Olsen & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2015. "Price formulation and the law of one price in internationally linked markets: an examination of the natural gas markets in the USA and Canada," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 117-142, January.
    9. Szafranek, Karol & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2023. "How immune is the connectedness of European natural gas markets to exceptional shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    10. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2015. "Downstream integration of natural gas prices across U.S. states: Evidence from deregulation regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-92.
    12. Kao, Chung-Wei & Wan, Jer-Yuh, 2009. "Information transmission and market interactions across the Atlantic -- an empirical study on the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 152-161, January.
    13. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.
    14. Adeel Riaz & Assad Ullah & Li Xingong, 2024. "Does trade policy uncertainty in China and USA matter for key financial markets?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-30, April.
    15. David Woroniuk & Arzé Karam & Tooraj Jamasb, 2019. "European Gas Markets, Trading Hubs, and Price Formation: A Network Perspective," Working Papers EPRG1922, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    16. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    17. repec:wyi:journl:002202 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Arano, Kathleen & Velikova, Marieta, 2010. "Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship: The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 901-907, July.
    19. Ruzhao Gao & Yancai Zhao & Bing Zhang, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on the oil, gold, and stock markets: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2134-2141, April.
    20. Vincenzo Candila & Salvatore Farace, 2018. "On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    21. Darko B. Vuković & Senanu Dekpo-Adza & Vladislav Khmelnitskiy & Mustafa Özer, 2023. "Spillovers across the Asian OPEC+ Financial Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302796. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.