From exit to exposure: Gas import shocks and macroeconomic asymmetries in the wake of Europe's coal phaseout

The present study investigates the macro-institutional determinants of natural gas import volumes (GIV) in 13 European countries from 2010 to 2019, offering new insights into the energy price pass-through to inflation and the details and conditions of its mechanism, including environmental policy, economic uncertainty and volatility as well as financial fragility. It seeks to uncover the structural channels through which gas price shocks are transmitted into domestic inflation, conditioned by the transparency of procurement processes, the rigidity of fiscal systems, and the uneven rollout of decarbonization pathways. Employing a mixed-method approach -integrating panel causality, quantile regression, VECM, ECM, GMM, and PMG estimations-the analysis reveals distinct short- and long-run mechanisms shaping GIV trajectories across institutional and economic contexts. Results show that gas imports significantly amplify household inflation, confirming pass-through effects in energy-dependent economies. Environmental policy stringency and market-based instruments present countervailing pressures: while the former drives substitution from coal to gas, the latter suppresses overall fossil fuel imports. A central innovation lies in incorporating procurement indicators. Direct Awarded Contracts exhibit a robust, positive association with GIV, underscoring the inflationary and dependency risks embedded in opaque procurement. Conversely, large-scale public contracts display heterogeneous effects-expanding GIV at low import levels but displacing it in high-import contexts through decarbonization projects. Quantile estimates confirm non-linear dynamics, and GMM-IV results validate endogeneity-corrected relationships, particularly for nuclear heat and non-performing loans. The error correction term reveals a high degree of responsiveness in gas import adjustment mechanisms. The findings offer critical policy implications: procurement transparency, financial stability, and synchronized carbon pricing emerge as pivotal in mitigating energy vulnerability. Coordinated cross-border policy design is essential to stabilize GIV without undermining the EU's decarbonization goals.