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Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

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  • Thomas M. Mertens
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

This paper applies a New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under standard inflation-targeting, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation target. Two themes emerge from our analysis: first, the central bank can mitigate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework. Second, price-level targeting that raises inflation expectations when inflation is low can both anchor expectations at target and further reduce the effects of the lower bound on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 427-432, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:427-32
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191083
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2021. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2473-2505, August.
    2. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 182-199, January.
    3. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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