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The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate

Author

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  • Fiorentini, Gabriele
  • Galesi, Alessandro
  • Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel
  • Sentana, Enrique

Abstract

We document a rise and fall of the natural interest rate (r*) for several advanced economies, which starts increasing in the 1960's and peaks around the end of the 1980's. We reach this conclusion after showing that the Laubach and Williams (2003) model cannot estimate r* accurately when either the IS curve or the Phillips curve is flat. In those empirically relevant situations, a local level specification for the observed interest rate can precisely estimate r*. An estimated Panel ECM suggests that the temporary demographic effect of the young baby-boomers mostly accounts for the rise and fall.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Papetti, Andrea, 2019. "Demographics and the natural real interest rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2258, European Central Bank.
    2. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Potential Growth and Natural Yield Curve in Japan," Working Papers halshs-02091035, HAL.
    3. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    4. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2019. "The natural interest rate in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 1067, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    6. Grossman, Valerie & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 31 Mar 2019.
    7. Isabel Argimón, 2018. "The relevance of currency-denomination for the cross-border effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 1827, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographics; Kalman filter; Natural rate of interest; observability;

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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