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Demographic trends and the real interest rate

Author

Listed:
  • Lisack, Noëmie

    (Bank of England)

  • Sajedi, Rana

    (Bank of England)

  • Thwaites, Gregory

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We quantify the impact of past and future global demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping generations model. Falling birth and death rates can explain a large part of the fall in world real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt since the 1980s. These trends will persist as the share of the population in the high-wealth 50+ age bracket continues to rise. As the United States ages relatively slowly, its net foreign liability position will grow. The availability of housing and debt as alternative stores of value attenuates these trends. The increasing monopolisation of the economy has ambiguous effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisack, Noëmie & Sajedi, Rana & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Demographic trends and the real interest rate," Bank of England working papers 701, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0701
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; population ageing; neutral interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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