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Monetary Policy and Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Yueran Ma
  • Kaspar Zimmermann

Abstract

We document that monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation activities. After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development (R&D) spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3 years. Patenting in important technologies, as well as a patent-based aggregate innovation index, declines by up to 9 percent in the following 2 to 4 years. Based on previous estimates of the sensitivity of output to innovation activities, these magnitudes imply that output could be 1 percent lower after another 5 years. Monetary policy can influence innovation activities by changing aggregate demand and correspondingly the profitability of innovation, and by changing financial market conditions. Both channels appear relevant in the data. Our findings suggest that monetary policy may affect the productive capacity of the economy in the longer term, in addition to the well-recognized near-term effects on economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Yueran Ma & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 31698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31698
    Note: CF EFG ME PR
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang & Takalo, Tuomas, 2023. "Technological innovation and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Price stability and debt sustainability under endogenous trend growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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