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Monetary Policy and Innovation

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  • Yueran Ma
  • Kaspar Zimmermann

Abstract

We document that monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation activities. After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development (R&D) spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3 years. Patenting in important technologies, as well as a patent-based aggregate innovation index, declines by up to 9 percent in the following 2 to 4 years. Based on previous estimates of the sensitivity of output to innovation activities, these magnitudes imply that output could be 1 percent lower after another 5 years. Monetary policy can influence innovation activities by changing aggregate demand and correspondingly the profitability of innovation, and by changing financial market conditions. Both channels appear relevant in the data. Our findings suggest that monetary policy may affect the productive capacity of the economy in the longer term, in addition to the well-recognized near-term effects on economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Yueran Ma & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 31698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31698
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    4. Majeed, Omer & Hambur, Jonathan & Breunig, Robert, 2025. "Does monetary policy impact innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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    8. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Can growth stabilize debt? A fiscal theory perspective," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland, revised 2024.
    9. Alberto G. Musalem, 2026. "Monetary Policy and Productivity: Promoting Growth vs. Stabilizing Prices," Speech 103613, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Miguel Acosta & Andrea Ajello & Michael D. Bauer & Francesca Loria & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2025. "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database," Working Paper Series 2025-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Uluc Aysun & Zeynep Yom, 2025. "Technology creation, business cycles and monetary transmission," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 61, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    12. Wen, Jun & Salim, Agus & Suripto, & Nasir, Muhammad Safar & Ismanto, Denny & Lunku, Hassan Swedy, 2026. "Innovation under pressure: decoding the tug-of-war between monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
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    15. Boungou, Whelsy & Dufau, Bastien, 2026. "Empirical evidence of a green investment channel of monetary policy under the EU ETS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
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    17. Alam, M. Jahangir & Alvi, Eskander, 2024. "The long-run effects of monetary policy: The role of R&D investment in economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    19. Alam, M. Jahangir, 2025. "Productivity responses of high-tech firms to monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Wang, Jingya & Taylor, Alex P., 2024. "Predicting consumption-wealth ratio changes and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    21. Schmöller, Michaela & Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Schmidt, Tobias, 2025. "Beyond the short run: Monetary policy and innovation investment," Discussion Papers 18/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Guérin, Pierre, 2023. "What are the effects of monetary policy on productivity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    23. Wang, Tingxi & Pian, Siyu, 2026. "Accommodative monetary policy and corporate innovation: Evidence from the risk-taking channel," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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