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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

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Abstract

We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with what is implied by the New Keynesian framework. We then discuss the reasons for which our results relying on a Trend-Cycle VAR differ from the findings of previous studies based on VAR analysis. We explain empirically and theoretically how to reconcile these differences.

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  • Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96640
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.038
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    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Fosso, Luca, 2025. "Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach," Working Paper Series 3138, European Central Bank.
    3. LeBaron, Blake & Smith, Karen, 2025. "Learning integrated inflation forecasts in a simple multi-agent macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 811-832, August.
    5. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    7. Ciambezi, Leonardo & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2025. "Inflation cycles: evidence from international data," BIS Working Papers 1264, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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