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Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach

Author

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  • Fosso, Luca

Abstract

This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models. JEL Classification: E32, C32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Fosso, Luca, 2025. "Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach," Working Paper Series 3138, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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