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Risky Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Susanto Basu
  • Giacomo Candian
  • Ryan Chahrour
  • Rosen Valchev

Abstract

We identify a shock that explains the bulk of fluctuations in the equity risk premium, and show that the shock also explains a large fraction of the business-cycle comovements of output, consumption, employment, and investment. Recessions induced by the shock are associated with a reallocation away from full-time labor positions, and towards part-time and flexible contract workers. We explain the data using a novel real model with labor market frictions and fluctuations in risk appetite. Since safer factors of production have lower marginal products in equilibrium, a “flight-to-safety” from riskier to safer factors precipitates a macroeconomic recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Susanto Basu & Giacomo Candian & Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Risky Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 28693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28693
    Note: EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.
    3. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2025. "Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 274-309, January.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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