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Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence

Author

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  • López-Salido, J David
  • Gust, Christopher
  • Herbst, Edward

Abstract

This paper estimates a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon (FH) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model as well as other behavioral NK models. In the FH model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without resorting to additional features such as habit persistence and price contracts indexed to lagged inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • López-Salido, J David & Gust, Christopher & Herbst, Edward, 2021. "Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16141
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Gust, Christopher & Herbst, Edward & López-Salido, David, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertain private sector foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Stéphane Dupraz & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2022. "Make-up Strategies with Finite Planning Horizons but Forward-Looking Asset Prices," Working papers 862, Banque de France.
    5. Jesper Lindé & Marcin Kolasa & Stefan Laseen, 2025. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2025/066, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dupraz, Stéphane & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "Make-up strategies with finite planning horizons but infinitely forward-looking asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Donald Coletti, 2023. "A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models," Discussion Papers 2023-23, Bank of Canada.
    10. Meggiorini, Greta, 2023. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Haochun Ma & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2025. "Clearing Up the Effective Lower Bound Morass," Papers 2511.04782, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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