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On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Hartmann, Matthias

Abstract

Based on a cross section of 17 advanced economies and data for the period 1975 to 2015, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. We construct a proxy for the unobservable inflation uncertainty based on the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation from a Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). We show that long-run inflation uncertainty is high if an inflation-tolerant central bank governor is in power during a period of high inflation, if the policy rate is below the one that is prescribed by the Taylor rule and during times of heightened stock and exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2019. "On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-250.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:56:y:2019:i:c:p:233-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.09.002
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    3. Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno & Glas, Alexander, 2020. "The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations," Working Papers 20, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation uncertainty; Central banking; Spline-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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