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Inflation Persistence: Revisited

Listed author(s):
  • Edward N. Gamber

    (Lafayette College)

  • Jeffrey P. Liebner

    (Lafayette College)

  • Julie K. Smith

    (Lafayette College)

This paper presents evidence on the persistence of inflation in the United States over the period 1947- 2010. Of particular interest is whether the persistence of inflation has changed over that time period. We use a reduced form approach to measuring inflation persistence, modeling inflation as an autoregressive process. We measure persistence as the half-life of a shock to that process. Our analysis employs both a frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach to identify breaks in inflation persistence. Both our frequentist and Bayesian results indicate that inflation persistence has undergone significant changes over the past 60 years.

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File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2013-002.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2013-002.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-002
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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  2. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
  3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  4. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
  5. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 419-428.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  7. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02.
  10. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  11. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  12. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1985-2015, November.
  13. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 55-86, September.
  14. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 851, European Central Bank.
  15. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
  16. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
  17. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
  18. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
  19. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  20. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 289-313.
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