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Inflation Persistence: Revisited

  • Edward N. Gamber

    (Lafayette College)

  • Jeffrey P. Liebner

    (Lafayette College)

  • Julie K. Smith

    (Lafayette College)

This paper presents evidence on the persistence of inflation in the United States over the period 1947- 2010. Of particular interest is whether the persistence of inflation has changed over that time period. We use a reduced form approach to measuring inflation persistence, modeling inflation as an autoregressive process. We measure persistence as the half-life of a shock to that process. Our analysis employs both a frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach to identify breaks in inflation persistence. Both our frequentist and Bayesian results indicate that inflation persistence has undergone significant changes over the past 60 years.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2013-002.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2013-002.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-002
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Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm
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  1. Batini, Nicoletta, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 0201, European Central Bank.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  5. Hondroyiannis, George & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2004. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Working Paper Series 0370, European Central Bank.
  6. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  8. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2003. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/41, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining Inflation-Gap Persistence by a Time-Varying Taylor Rule," Working Papers 0521, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
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