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Inflation Persistence: Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Edward N. Gamber

    (Lafayette College)

  • Jeffrey P. Liebner

    (Lafayette College)

  • Julie K. Smith

    (Lafayette College)

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on the persistence of inflation in the United States over the period 1947- 2010. Of particular interest is whether the persistence of inflation has changed over that time period. We use a reduced form approach to measuring inflation persistence, modeling inflation as an autoregressive process. We measure persistence as the half-life of a shock to that process. Our analysis employs both a frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach to identify breaks in inflation persistence. Both our frequentist and Bayesian results indicate that inflation persistence has undergone significant changes over the past 60 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2013. "Inflation Persistence: Revisited," Working Papers 2013-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2019. "Inflation Persistence in the West African Commonwealth Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(3), pages 80-89, September.
    2. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Miller Stephen M. & Gupta Rangan, 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Tarron Khemraj & Sherry Yu, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics and Quantitative Easing," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 613-638, October.
    5. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Time-series measures of core inflation," Working Papers 2016-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation persistence; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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