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Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics

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  • Yash P. Mehra
  • Devin Reilly

Abstract

This article investigates empirically short-term dynamics between headline and core measures of consumer price index and personal consumption expenditure inflation over three sample periods: 1959:1-1979:1, 1979:2-2001:2, and 1985:1-2007:2. Headline and core inflation measures are co-integrated, suggesting long-run co-movement. However, the ways these two variables adjust to each other in the short run and generate co-movement have changed across these sample periods. In the pre-1979 sample period, when a positive gap opens up with headline inflation rising above core inflation, the gap is eliminated mainly as a result of headline inflation not reverting and core inflation moving toward headline inflation. These dynamics suggest headline inflation would be better than core inflation in assessing the permanent component of inflation. In post-1979 sample periods, however, the positive gap is eliminated as a result of headline inflation reverting more strongly toward core inflation than core inflation moving toward headline inflation, suggesting core inflation would be better than headline inflation in assessing the permanent component of inflation. This change in headline-core inflation dynamics may be due to the Federal Reserve having convinced the public it would no longer accommodate shocks to food and energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 289-313.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2009:i:sum:p:289-313:n:v.95no.3
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:18:n:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eme:jespps:jes-10-2015-0190 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Miller Stephen M. & Gupta Rangan, 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller, 2016. "Inflation persistence and structural breaks: the experience of inflation targeting countries and the US," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 980-1005, November.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M Miller, 2017. "Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 78-103, January.
    6. Anderson Antonio Denardin & Alice Kozakevicius & Alex A. Schmidt, 2018. "Avaliação Da Medida De Núcleo De Inflação Baseada No Método Wavelet Para O Brasil," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Inflation persistence: revisited," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44.
    8. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy;

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