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Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares

  • Breitung, Jörg
  • Wulff, Christian

The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction mechanism (ECM). Such a process tolerates small deviations from the long run relationship. For more substantial deviations, an effective adjustment process pushes the diverging prices towards their fundamental relationship. In this paper parametric and nonparametric techniques are employed to investigate the ECM between prices of voting and non-voting stocks. Despite its intuitive appeal, we find little evidence for a nonlinear relationship between German dual-class shares. Only in 4 out of 12 cases, the threshold ECM yields a substantial improvement of fit. In other cases, the evidence for nonlinearity is rather weak and the threshold ECM fails to outperform the linear model.

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Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 1999,67.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199967
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  2. Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  3. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  4. Gardiol, Lucien & Gibson-Asner, Rajna & Tuchschmid, Nils S., 1997. "Are liquidity and corporate control priced by shareholders? Empirical evidence from Swiss dual class shares," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 299-323, December.
  5. Breitung, Jörg & Wulff, Christian, 1999. "Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  10. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  11. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  12. Roger M. Kunz & James J. Angel, 1996. "Factors Affecting the Value of Stock Voting Rights: Evidence from the Swiss Equity Market," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), Fall.
  13. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  14. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  15. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  16. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
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