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The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence

  • Beechey, Meredith

    (Monetary Affairs Division)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()

    (Department of Economics)

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output stability is a determinant of inflation persistence. Hence, time variation of that preference should be reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autore- gressive parameter for monthly U.S. inflation data from 1955 to 2006.The coefficients provide an estimate of the inflation target and the path of inflation persistence. The estimated inflation target over the sample is approximately 2.8 percent and we find that inflation persistence declined substantially during Volcker and Greenspan's tenures to a level significantly less than one and significantly below that of the 1970s and early 1980s.

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Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007:18.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_018
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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