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The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • E. Gurvich
  • I. Prilepskiy.

Abstract

The paper looks into the impact of the Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. The results of modeling of capital flow components (taking into account the influence of other factors, including the fall in oil prices) demonstrate that, apart from the direct effect of constraints on foreign funding for sanctioned state-controlled banks, oil, gas and arms companies, there is also a significant indirect effect of lower inflows of foreign direct investment and worsening funding conditions for non-sanctioned companies. The overall negative effect on gross capital inflow in 2014—2017 is estimated at about $280bn. However, the effect on net capital inflow is significantly lower ($160—170bn) thanks to self-adjustment of Russian companies evident in utilization of foreign assets accumulated earlier for debt repayment and overall decrease in gross capital outflow. The estimated sanctions’ effect on GDP is significant (–2.4 p.p. by 2017 as compared to hypothetical scenario without sanctions) but 3.3 times lower than the estimated effect of oil price shock.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Gurvich & I. Prilepskiy., 2016. "The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:2016-01-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Ulyukaev & V. Mau., 2015. "From Economic Crisis to Economic Growth, or How to Prevent the Crisis from Turning into Stagnation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    2. A. Blank & E. Gurvich & A. Ulyukaev., 2006. "Exchange Rate and Competitiveness of Russia’s Industries," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    3. E. Gurvich & I. Prilepskiy., 2013. "How to Secure External Sustainability of the Russian Economy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    5. N. Orlova., 2014. "Financial Sanctions: Consequences for Russia’s Economy and Economic Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
    6. Erlend Nier & Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Tomas Mondino, 2014. "Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?," IMF Working Papers 14/196, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    2. Gurvich, E., 2016. "Evolution of Russian Macroeconomic Policy in Three Crises," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 174-181.
    3. repec:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:42-:d:229739 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ris:apltrx:0376 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stephan Barisitz & Andreas Breitenfellner, 2017. "How do resource-driven economies cope with the oil price slump? A comparative survey of ten major oil-exporting countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 33-53.
    6. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q3-18:b:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:nea:journl:y:2019:i:43:p:184-190 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:nea:journl:y:2019:i:43:p:163-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ris:apltrx:0353 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2018:i:4:p:1450-1462 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Buklemishev, O., 2016. "Overcoming Investment Pause in the Russian Economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 160-167.
    12. repec:urb:journl:v:7:y:2017:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:wfo:wstudy:60669 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrea Flori & Simone Giansante & Fabio Pammolli, 2016. "Peer-Group Detection of Banks and Resilience to Distress," Working Papers 06/2016, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Dec 2016.
    15. repec:scn:financ:y:2018:i:3:p:83-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Rogov Mikhail I., 2016. "International Economic Sanctions:Analyses Of The Case With Russia In 2014," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 2, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial sanctions; balance of payments adjustment; external debt; capital flows.;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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